Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS61 KBGM 292357
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
757 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat advisory issued for Tuesday for portions of the area. A
extreme heat watch has been issued for Wednesday through Friday
for the entire forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will increase through this week leading to
elevated heat index values.

2) Along with the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of
the week could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
some of which could be strong with a potential for localized
torrential rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

No major changes to the significant details with this forecast
update. Forecast is still showing a large heat dome building over
the eastern U.S through the week. This will bring the warmest
temperatures to the region so far this summer. Temperatures in
the 90s and dewpoints from the upper 60s to mid-70s are
exhibiting a high confidence of occurring. As such, a heat
advisory has been issued for Tuesday for portions of the region
and a extreme heat watch has been issued for the entire area for
Wednesday through Friday. There remains some uncertainty on
whether or not extreme heat criteria (HI 105 or greater) will be
exceeded. The most likely areas of this occurring will be in
urban valleys and the 105 HI threshold is not expected to be too
widespread. There are several caveats that could prevent high
temperatures from reaching their fullest advertised potential.
Dew point temperatures could mix lower during afternoon period
and the lower humidity would cause lower HIs and also, there
remains potential for at least isolated afternoon convection
each day this week.

Finally, unsettled conditions along a cold front dropping out
of Canada this weekend will bring relief from the high heat and
lower dew points a bit as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Very tricky weather pattern over the coming days as we will be
close to the periphery of the upper ridge. Depending on how
strong and amplified the ridge becomes will determine our fate
for thunderstorm chances this week. Chances of Thunderstorms
have been kept in the forecast for the afternoon and evening
for Tuesday and Wednesday. The is potential for a ridge runner
MCS during this timeframe, and although chances may be highest
during the afternoon and evening hours, there is potential that
an MCS could push through our region at any time during the next
2 days. Forecast soundings show incredible instability for both
Tuesday and Wednesday, with potential CAPE values of 4,000 to
5,000 J/kg. Also, midlevel lapse rate Tuesday evening and night
could exceed 8C/km as an EML moves overhead. Even during the
overnight hours, MUCAPE of 2,000+ J/kg will be possible. Due to
the extreme instability for this region, the potential for a
long lasting MCS or Derecho exists for somewhere in the
Northeast U.S. in the coming days, but at this time, it is not
possible to pin down timing or location, but this will be
something to monitor.

As mentioned, triggers for storms are tough to pin down, as we
will be near the NE edge of the ridge and several shortwaves
will be riding around the perimeter of the ridge and this will
be needed to break the cap of the EML plume overhead. So,
barring remnants from upstream MCS complexes propagating
southward into the low level moisture axis within the ridge, we
should mainly see limited to isolated activity, as storms may
only be able to fire without a trigger over higher terrain.
Also, outflow from any storms that can pop through the cap could
continue to support additional storms to fire.

Forecasters will be monitoring upstream thunderstorm complexes
over the coming days and confidence will increase for severe
weather if we start seeing a long live MCS pushing across
southern Ontario, Canada...Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals for most
of the period. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening, but confidence remains low
regarding the exact timing and location of development. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be towards the end of
the TAF period.

Otherwise light and variable winds are expected tonight. Conditions
should remain too dry for fog development. Southwest flow
develops tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 15 knots.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Saturday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent
restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or near the daily records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
     evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
     evening for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB/MPK
AVIATION...ES
CLIMATE...MDP