Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS61 KBGM 021817
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
117 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold weather advisories have been allowed to expire, flurries
were added through the rest of the afternoon for CNY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The cold and dry pattern continues through Friday.

2) A Clipper system will bring a chance for snow showers and
possible squalls on Friday into Friday night. Following the
Clipper, a strong arctic front will move in over the weekend,
resulting in very cold temperatures and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The pattern this week does not change much, with a strong ridge
out over the Western US and a long wave trough persisting in
the Eastern US. The long wave trough axis is just off the east
coast so that puts us predominantly under NW flow. Shortwaves
rotating around the back side of the trough will continue to
bring cold air into our region. 850 mb temperatures do not look
to rise above -10C and stay closer to -15C through this week
keeping temperatures below to well below average for this time
of the year. Snow chances remain low through Friday morning as
there is not much moisture for any of the shortwaves to acquire
as they move into the Northeast. With the Great Lakes total ice
cover over 50%, and with Lake Erie >95% as well as Lake Huron
nearing 75%, lake effect snow is going to be limited. The NY
thruway and north will still likely see some lake effect snow as
Ontario is still mostly open water but the lack of upstream
open waters in other lakes keeps most accumulating snow closer
to the coast rather than extending inland.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potent 500 mb shortwave drops into the Great Lakes region
Friday into Friday night, with cold arctic air mass moving in
behind it. Chances of snow are higher with this shortwave due to
better lift but overall there is still not going to be much
moisture in place to get much widespread accumulating snow.
Forecast soundings do look better for snow squalls with
steepening low level lapse rates ahead of a strong surface
front. Winds also look to become gusty behind the front with 850
mb winds up near 50 knots Friday night through Saturday. Using
NBM to look at the probability of temperatures below 0 and winds
over 20 mph (near extreme cold warning criteria of apparent
temperatures <-25F), there were areas in the Finger Lakes, Tug
Hill, and into the Catskills where the probabilities were near
25%. Trends in the deterministic models this morning have been
towards the coldest core of the arctic air mass to move into New
England rather than through the Great Lakes so we may miss out
on getting those -25F or colder wind chills. This will continue
to have to be monitored as if the cold air trends back south,
the ice on the Great Lakes would prevent most of the usual
temperature moderation we see from these cold air masses so it
will be easier to achieve very cold temperatures for this area.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds and very light snow showers off of Lake Ontario will keep
MVFR/Fuel Alt conditions for a few NY terminals. These should
shut off going into the late afternoon/early evening (21-23Z),
and conditions improve to VFR for the majority of terminals
after 00Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and expand, with widespread
MVFR CIGs likely areawide.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus
clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across
Central NY.

Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM and
AVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and
RME in the cold NW flow.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or
less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to
occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME.

Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of
snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday
night. Squalls possible.

Saturday...Restrictions possible at SYR and RME with possible
development of lake effect snow showers

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...KL