Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS61 KBGM 081053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a brief period of dry weather this
morning. The next system will then bring scattered showers to
the area once again starting late this afternoon and evening.
Unsettled weather will then continue through at least Tuesday
with flash flooding possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
620 AM Update:

Lowered hourly temperatures for the next couple of hours since
temperatures dropped into the lower to mid 50s, and even some
areas getting down to the mid 40s prior to sunrise due to some
radiational cooling. Temperatures will quickly rebound today
with highs still expected to be in the mid to upper 70s.

435 AM Update:

The brief ridging that has been overhead overnight will quickly
move off to the east today and be replaced with another
shortwave trough approaching the area from the west. As a
result, today will start off dry with partly sunny skies, but
skies will become mostly cloudy by this afternoon. Skies may be
a bit hazy once again this morning with some elevated smoke in
place from Canadian fires.

The northern edge of the precipitation shield from this next
wave will move into area by the mid-late afternoon. Initial dry
air in place may delay the onset of rain showers by a little
bit, but by late this afternoon/early evening scattered showers
are expected to be in place. PWATs will be on the rise; starting
off at around 0.50" this morning, but increasing to around
1.40" by this evening. Despite this, overall forcing doesn`t
look very impressive, which should limit the potential for heavy
rainfall. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, so
included a slight chance of thunder for late this afternoon into
this evening. High temperatures today are expected to be in the
mid to upper 70s and lows tonight are expected to be in the mid
50s to near 60 degrees.

A warm front will slowly move through the region on Monday,
which will bring a continued chance for some scattered showers.
Some of the latest CAMs show a bit of a break in the showers
late in the day Monday before the main action arrives for Monday
night. Otherwise Monday will be a mostly cloudy day with highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM update...

The short term period looks quite active with high confidence for
more showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system
moving in from the Great Lakes and through CNY/NEPA Monday night
into Tuesday. Models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing
of a deep trof lifting east/northeast with some slight differences
in strength which will play into the return of deep moisture. Any
convective activity on Monday afternoon will add to an area already
primed from persistent rainfall over the past couple months. A plume
of moisture with PW values up to around 1.5 inches is likely to
surge ahead of the advancing cold front. Forcing from the right
entrance region of an upper jet streak circling the base of the
upper low will enhance vertical motions over the region allowing for
the potential for excessive rainfall. Runoff should be efficient
given highly saturated soils and localized flooding could be a
hazard to contend with. Probabilistic guidance (about 20% chance)
suggests a narrow ribbon of rainfall greater than 1 inch within a 6
hour period Monday night.

The upper low in the Great Lakes will make slow progress to the
east/northeast on Tuesday, which will allow the trailing cold front
to also move relatively slowly to the east and lead to potentially
another period of showers and storms Tue afternoon, mainly over
areas east of the I-81 corridor. The heaviest rainfall on Tuesday
could reach up to 1 inch in some locations...with locally heavier
amounts in thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM update...

With the cold front east of us by Wednesday...high pressure will
build into the region allowing for a quieter few days at the end of
next week. A pattern adjustment over the CONUS with trofs in the
Pacific NW and Canadian Maritimes and resultant ridging over the
central U.S. will keep us in broad northwesterly flow aloft. Overall
we`ll see a gradual increase in temperatures back toward June
climatology, but offset a bit by the NW flow. There should also be
more times with drier weather during this period although subtle
waves moving through Wednesday night and again on Thursday could
produce some hit or miss showers or thunderstorms in the moisture
lacking atmosphere. Surface based heating and evapotranspiration
should be enough for some localized CAPE to be generated. The model
guidance diverges more from Friday into Saturday with the
possibility of a lingering boundary in the region as well. This is
enough uncertainty at this time to mention the potential for
showers/thunderstorms for yet another weekend period.

Temperatures will rebound into the 70s to lower 80s through the
period with relatively cool nights in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy fog/mist will dissipate around, or shortly after 12Z,
which will result in a return to VFR conditions at all
terminals. By this evening, showers begin to move in from the
south and ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR and eventually
Fuel Alternate. IFR ceilings will be possible late tonight/early
Monday morning at KBGM, KELM, and KITH. Guidance is hinting at
IFR ceiling restrictions late tonight at KAVP, but with a
southeast downsloping flow, opted to not include IFR
restrictions there.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely result in occasional restrictions.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with isolated showers
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BJG