Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

304
FXUS61 KBGM 290019
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
819 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Very few changes to the near term forecast with this update.
Continued to keep dew points a little lower than modeled for mid
week, and lowered high temperatures slightly as well given
potential cloud cover and pop up afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may occur primarily over
Northeast PA and the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and
Catskills this afternoon.

2) Heat and humidity will be increasing through this week
leading to elevated heat indices.

3) With the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of the
week could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low chances of thunderstorms were kept in for the Catskills and
Poconos and vicinity given terrain driven convection. Satellite
early this afternoon shows some agitated cumulus developing
with day time heating. Water vapor imagery does show a good
amount of dry air moving in so this deeper convection is helping
to mix down this drier air. It will be a battle between the
drying of the boundary layer and deepening convection through
the afternoon but the highest terrain of the Catskills has the
best chance of convection overcoming dry layer aloft. If a storm
does pop up, it will be slow moving with heavy rain so a quick
inch under a thunderstorm is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong ridge builds into the Eastern US this next week with
temperatures and dew points gradually increasing each day
through late week. 500 mb heights rise over 590 dm with 850 mb
temperatures greater than 20C so afternoon highs will be well
into the 90s for most of the region starting Wednesday through
the remainder of the week. Dew points look to climb into the
upper 60s and low 70s as well. NBM blends continue to have mid
70s for dew points which is likely a high bias, especially where
westerly component winds are a drying downslope off the
Allegany Plateau. That said, moisture in the boundary layer can
sweep into the lake plain from WNY where higher dewpoint values
across much of the Ohio River Valley are well above average so
the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area could see oppressive mid-70s
dewpoints. One thing that could limit our warmer temperatures
and prevent upper 90s and even a few 100s in urban areas for air
temperatures will be afternoon convection. Despite the ridge,
there will not be a lot of CIN so showers and storms could
develop early afternoon and help keep highs slightly cooler. A
front dropping out of Canada this weekend may keep temperatures
a little cooler, and lower dew points a bit as well.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Chances of Thunderstorms have been kept for each afternoon from
Tuesday onwards as the dew points climb along with the
temperatures. MLCAPE rises to 1000 to 2000 J/kg each afternoon.
Right now, triggers for storms are tough to pin down as we are
near the NE edge of the ridge with shortwaves that will be
riding around the perimeter of the ridge. Forecast soundings do
keep come CIN but it is not much. Storms may be able to fire
without a trigger as well over higher terrain, then outflow from
those could continue to support additional storms into the
early evening.

Tuesday still looks the most interesting for storms, given an
Elevated Mixed Layer is moving through, leading to modeled
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8C/km. Shear is lacking (<30 knots)
for a bigger event as well as an obvious trigger, but many
models at least fire off some convection. Downburst will be
possible with initial convection given the CAPE and Mid Level
Lapse rates. Forecast soundings also show warm cloud depths over
10K feet with potential for training given flow aloft so a
flash flood risk is there as well high high rainfall rates that
could approach two to three inches an hour.

The threat for downburst lessens and becomes more isolated
Wednesday onwards as mid level lapse rates trends back towards
6C/km but the CAPE will be high each afternoon. Low level flow
and mid level flows align better later in the week for training
storms so if we do get storms to fire or if the ridge does not
build as far into New England with the ring of fire closer to
our CWA, we could be dealing with a persistent flash flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the period with
exception to a few sites where patchy fog may develop late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. This will result in a return of
visby restrictions, especially at KELM and possibly at BGM/KAVP.
Model guidance also hints at potential for fog also at ITH, but
confidence is too low. Otherwise, other terminals are expected
to remain VFR.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Friday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions will
be possible with isolated showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/JAB
AVIATION...ES/KL
CLIMATE...BTL